Today (Monday) things are calmer in the UK markets with the Pound and UK stocks strongly higher and gilt yields lower after new Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, announced a reversal of nearly all the tax cuts in the government’s recent mini-budget. US stocks are also up following positive third-quarter earnings reports from major US companies including Bank of America.

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Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

Stock-markets were higher last week despite a sharp sell-off on Friday following a stronger-than-expected (yes, stronger) U.S. jobs report. Positive economic news is not what investors are looking for at the moment because they are focused on the Federal Reserve’s reaction to data rather than the data itself.

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Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

Equities fell again last week after the UK’s mini-budget 10 days ago sparked turmoil on the global markets.

The Pound fell to a record low against the US dollar, mortgage rates spiked and the Bank of England had to intervene with an emergency £65 billion measure to purchase long-dated UK government bonds and avert a meltdown in the bond market.

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Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

The Pound has today (Monday) fallen to an all-time low against the US Dollar after Chancellor of the Exchequer, Kwasi Kwarteng, said more tax cuts are likely. Investors are worried this could stoke further inflation. GBPUSD fell to 1.0382 earlier although there has been a recovery back above 1.06 on hopes of emergency action by the Bank of England. A falling Pound is not all bad news – UK investors who hold overseas assets, for example in US Dollars, will benefit.

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https://realmim.com/pound-falls-to-all-time-low-against-the-us-dollar/

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

Global equities were higher last. The US S&P 500 broke a 3week run of losses as stocks bounced back from technically oversold conditions and on the back of optimism that inflation may be cooling – we note that the price of oil fell last week to its lowest level since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Signs of moderating inflation will raise hopes that the Federal Reserve might ease the expected rate of tightening over the coming months. Evidence may be forthcoming tomorrow (Tuesday) with the release of US CPI data.

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https://realmim.com/stocks-bounce-ahead-of-us-cpi-data/

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

Economic data out of China stalled the markets at the end of last week and weakness has carried over to the start of this week. The weaker-than-expected data and news that Chinese Covid infections had reached a three-month high prompted the country’s central bank to unexpectedly cut interest rates.

Full report:
https://realmim.com/weaker-than-expected-china-data-stalls-the-market/

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

Market View from Realm Investment Management. Week ending 12th August 2022.

Stocks and risk-assets rallied last week reinforcing the view of some economists that inflation has peaked. US CPI data came in lower than expected and (along with recent US jobs data) is encouraging bulls that a so-called “soft landing” can be achieved, i.e. bringing inflation under control without causing a damaging recession.

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Bear market rally or the birth of a new Bull?

UK Market 5th August 2022

US Market 5th August 2022

U.S. Risk Barometer 5th August 2022

Europe Risk Barometer 5th August 2022

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

UK Market 29th July 2022

US Market 29th July 2022

U.S. Risk Barometer 29th July 2022

Europe Risk Barometer 29th July 2022

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

UK Market 8th July 2022

US Market 8th July 2022

The Big Picture 8th July 2022

Market Sentiment 8th July 2022

U.S. Risk Barometer 8th July 2022

Europe Risk Barometer 8th July 2022

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’