Archives for April 2023

Stock-markets were mixed last week. The US was lower, Europe higher. Asia markets were generally lower with Japan bucking the trend.

In the US, each week seems to bring fresh news regarding the economy and inflation to change investors’ minds. Latest consensus is that the economy is proving surprisingly resilient and therefore the Fed will have to keep interest rates higher for longer. At least that’s the way economists surveyed recently by the Wall Street Journal are seeing it and recent comments from Fed policy makers appear to concur.

Full report
https://realmim.com/us-economy-proving-resilient-and-higher-for-longer-may-be-back-on-the-table/

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

Latest inflation and unemployment data both indicate the US economy is slowing but maybe not enough for the Fed to delay another 0.25% rate hike in May. CPI data released on Tuesday showed that core prices increased but US inflation actually slowed more than expected in March and PPI data showed that US Producer Prices fell 0.5% mom in March, the most in nearly three Years.

Full report
https://realmim.com/us-economy-is-slowing-but-maybe-not-enough-to-avoid-a-further-rate-hike-in-may/

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

The big surprise at the start of this week was the leap in oil prices after OPEC+ announced a cut in oil production. At one point today oil was up more than 8% from Friday. There was a similar gain over the previous week and not surprisingly the best performing sector last week was Energy. James Bullard, President of Fed Bank of St. Louis said that an increase in the price of oil might make the job of lowering inflation more challenging. Clearly the odds of another Fed rate hike at the next meeting just increased.

Full report
https://realmim.com/opec-shock-announcement-to-kick-off-the-week/

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’