Archives for July 2023

The Fed will make its next interest rate decision known on Wednesday. The market is pricing in a near certainty of another 0.25% hike. The European Central Bank is also expected to raise rates by 0.25% this week. Investors will be most interested in what Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde have to say after the announcements.

Full report
https://realmim.com/fed-and-ecb-expected-to-raise-rates-again-this-week/

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

Most global stock-markets rebounded strongly last week from losses the previous week – certainly in Europe and especially in the US after the release of improving inflation data and better-than-expected earnings reports from major US companies.

US CPI data came in at 3%, its lowest level since March 2021 and slightly better than expectations. This reduces pressure on the Fed to keep hiking although the market is still pricing in 90% odds that the central bank will hike again later this month. Even so, looking further out the market now sees less chance of further hikes. More evidence of lower inflation came from US Producer Prices data which showed a 0.1% increase – the lowest in nearly three years.

Full report
https://realmim.com/inflation-data-leads-markets-higher/

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

All major global stock-markets were lower last week apart from India which managed to gain slightly. Bond yield rose, commodities were mixed but generally higher.

The monthly private payrolls report from ADP (a giant US payroll processing company) showed that 497k US jobs were unexpectedly created in June – well above forecasts. This is why the US 10yr Treasury yield jumped above 4% last week for the first time since March. At the same time the yield on the UK 10-year gilt rose above 4.7%, the highest since October 2008.

Full report
https://realmim.com/jobs-and-services-data-will-keep-fed-on-their-toes/

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’