Archives for January 2024

US stocks were higher last week. So was Europe and UK while Asian stockmarkets were mixed.

In the US, both Services and Manufacturing PMI data (Purchasing Managers Index) came in above expectations and above 50, indicating expansion. The US Manufacturing print was a 15-month high. Another US data point last week that surprised to the upside was fourth-quarter GDP growth which came in at 3.3% annualised; with 2% forecasted. The market lowered the expectations of a March rate cut to 40% (was above 60% just a week ago) and the US Dollar index rose to a six week high.

Full report:
https://realmim.com/busy-week-coming-big-tech-companies-report-fed-meeting-and-us-jobs-data/

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

US stock indices were higher last week, apart from the Russell 2000 Small-Cap index. The US technology sector out-performed.

Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Christopher Waller, set risk assets back earlier in the week with his comments on interest rates.. “with economic activity and labour markets in good shape and inflation coming down gradually to 2 percent, I see no reason to move as quickly or cut as rapidly as in the past“.

Full report
https://realmim.com/uk-inflation-rose-unexpectedly-us-stocks-continue-to-out-perform/

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

Last week, US stocks bounced back strongly from the previous week’s decline, although Small-Caps underperformed again. European and UK stocks put in a much more muted performance.

US consumer inflation data came in higher than expected last week. CPI for December came in at 3.35%, up from 3.14% in November (a 5-month low), and above forecasts of 3.2%. Following the data there were comments from Fed members suggesting that it is too soon to think about cutting rates – even so, the market is pricing in a 70% chance that the Fed will cut in March (this was previously 90%).

Full report
https://realmim.com/mixed-us-inflation-data-last-week/

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

2023 ended up as a reasonably good year for investors with bonds making a comeback and equities rallying strongly through November/December following a period of weakness.

In the US, inflation has been falling sharply while the economy has remained strong. Markets are now seeing a 90% chance that the Fed will cut rates as early as March.

In the first week of 2024 investors will be closely monitoring some important data releases, including US jobs numbers and minutes of the Federal Reserve’s meeting last month.

Full report:
https://realmim.com/markets-expect-fed-to-cut-rates-as-early-as-march/

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’