Global stock markets experienced another volatile week with inflation worries and geopolitical tensions weighing on sentiment. The much-followed Volatility Index, sometimes called the fear-gauge, reached 21.4, its highest level in seven months, although not historically an extreme level for the VIX.

On Thursday US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that “additional evidence of persistently above-trend growth, or that tightness in the labor market is no longer easing, could put further progress on inflation at risk and could warrant further tightening of monetary policy”. He also reiterated that he and his colleagues were “united in our commitment to bringing inflation down sustainably to 2%”.

Full report
https://realmim.com/markets-experience-another-volatile-week/

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

…and today (Monday) the benchmark yield has (again) reached its highest level since 2007.

The Fed kept rates on hold last week but sent a clear indication that in order to bring inflation down to the 2% target rate there could be another hike this year. Stocks declined and the US Dollar rallied.

Full report
https://realmim.com/us-10yr-treasury-yield-hits-16-year-high-after-fed-meeting/

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

European equities were higher last week. The UK’s FTSE 100 put in a particularly good performance – up more than 3%. Asia was mixed, and the US, flat to lower.

The European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates again last week. This hike of 0.25% lifted rates to 4.5%, the highest since 1999. There was an indication that an end to the cycle could be in sight though; the ECB said “interest rates have reached levels that, maintained for a sufficiently long duration, will make a substantial contribution to the timely return of inflation to the target”. European equities rallied strongly following the statement.

Full report:
https://realmim.com/central-bank-decisions-this-week-from-fed-boe-boj/

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

Stocks in the U.S. and Europe were lower last week as strong US economic data and rising oil prices weighed on the outlook for inflation and kept pressure on central banks.

Full report:
https://realmim.com/good-news-is-still-bad-news-for-markets/

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

August was a down month for stock-markets but two emerging themes helped equities cap losses. One is the belief that AI will help drive future growth and the other is the increasing optimism over a soft-landing for the US economy.

There have been indications that the US labour market has been weakening recently (remember that the markets are in a bad-news-is-good-news mode). Data last week showed that Job Openings fell to their lowest level since March 2001 and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report…

Full report:
https://realmim.com/stocks-down-in-august-but-soft-landing-hopes-grow/

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

Global stock-markets were mixed last week. In the US, the S&P 500 was up, the tech-heavy Nasdaq was strongly higher, large-cap Dow-Jones Industrials and small-cap Russell 2000 were down. European indices were higher and the momentum has continued at the start of this week – the FTSE 100 is up 1.5% this morning (Tuesday).

Full report
https://realmim.com/stocks-higher-after-jackson-hole/

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell will speak at the end of this week at the Jackson Hole Symposium. In his speech last year he warned that higher interest rates would “bring some pain to households and businesses”. This year investors will be hoping for clues that the Fed will be taking their foot off the accelerator even if we have to accept the idea of current higher rates for longer.

Full report:
https://realmim.com/stocks-lower-last-week-investors-look-ahead-to-jackson-hole/

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

Global stock-markets were generally lower last week with inflation, interest rates and oil prices the focus for investors. The price of oil rose strongly throughout July and into August as OPEX, Saudi Arabia and Russia restrained supply and an improving economic outlook in the US potentially lifting demand. Oil traders will be closely watching the release of industrial production data from China on Tuesday.

Full report
https://realmim.com/uk-gdp-beats-forecasts-inflation-data-coming-up/

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

Markets went a little risk-off last week after one of the big three credit ratings agencies, Fitch, downgraded their US credit rating from from AAA to AA+. Included in the reasons for this was “the repeated debt-limit political standoffs and last-minute resolutions” which had “eroded market confidence”. Equities sold-off sharply after the announcement but all major US stock indices remain well above their much-watched 200 day moving averages. US government Bonds also sold-off on the news and longer-term Treasury yields rallied to their highest levels since November.

Full report:
https://realmim.com/fitch-us-downgrade-unsettles-equity-markets-but-trend-remains-up/

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

The Fed will make its next interest rate decision known on Wednesday. The market is pricing in a near certainty of another 0.25% hike. The European Central Bank is also expected to raise rates by 0.25% this week. Investors will be most interested in what Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde have to say after the announcements.

Full report
https://realmim.com/fed-and-ecb-expected-to-raise-rates-again-this-week/

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’