Global stock-markets were lower last week. Investors were nervous as a potential US government shut-down loomed with Congress struggling to find consensus on a short-term funding deal. Thankfully, that scenario was averted on the weekend and President Biden signed the deal into law minutes before the deadline.

Investors now re-focus on the Fed’s next move and anxiety remains high after the yield on the US 10-year Treasury rose above 4.6% last week and remains as high at the start of this week. The US central bank kept interest rates on hold in September but indicated there could be another rate hike before the end of the year. The recent rise in oil prices has not been helping that issue and a new 12-month price high was reached last week.

Full report
https://realmim.com/focus-back-on-inflation-after-us-government-shut-down-is-averted/

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

Market Review from Realm Investment Management – week ending 30th June 2023

All major market indices ended the week higher with a strong end to the week after the release of US Inflation Data on Friday. Investors were pleased to see the Fed’s favoured inflation measure, the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, fall to 4.6% year-on-year,

Full report
https://realmim.com/stocks-higher-last-week-and-a-slowing-indication-for-the-us-economy/

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

This week is an important one for data. The latest Fed interest rate decision will be announced on Wednesday and before that, on Tuesday, the US CPI inflation data will be released so there is some uncertainty over what the Fed will do.

The European Central Bank will also be announcing it’s latest rate decision on Thursday – the market is expecting a further 0.25% increase and another in July.

Full report:
https://realmim.com/unexpected-hikes-last-week-but-what-will-the-fed-do-this-week/

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

Over the weekend US President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy agreed a deal in principle on the debt-ceiling. It now needs to pass in the House and Senate. The US Dollar index is holding above 104 today (Tuesday), its highest level since mid-March.

Stock-markets in Asia and Europe were generally lower last week. US stocks were pretty much flat except the technology sector which showed a strong out-performance.

US inflation data came in above expectations last week…

Full report:

US Debt-Ceiling deal agreed in principle

Market review – week ending 12th May 2023

Stocks were generally flat to slightly lower last week.

Inflation has been the main focus for investors for months but there was encouraging data last week. In the US, the rate of annual inflation fell to 4.9% in April; below 5% for the first time in two years and may give the Fed room to pause rate hikes next month. That’s the market implied expectation and looking further out, rate cuts are anticipated before the end of the year – this in contrast to what the Fed seems to be thinking…

Full report
https://realmim.com/market-focus-shifting-from-inflation-to-debt-ceiling/

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

…that’s the consensus view

US GDP slowed to 1.1% in Q1 2023. The US economy is slowing, down from 2.6% Q4 2022. The consensus is for a recession (albeit a mild one) at some point this year.

Illustrating the challenge that the Fed faces in it’s fight with inflation, the PCE Price Index came in at 4.6%, month-on-month, exceeding forecasts. The US central bank is widely expected to hike rates another 0.25% this week. The ECB will also announce this week, and the Bank of England next week. Small hikes are expected from both.

Full report
https://realmim.com/small-hikes-now-and-a-mild-us-recession-to-come/

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

Market Review from Realm Investment Management – week ending 7th April 2023

Stocks had a mixed week but generally held up well, consolidating the gains made in the previous week. Energy stocks out-performed once again as oil prices moved back above $80 /barrel after OPEC+ announced a cut in oil production. Not surprisingly this helped the FTSE 100 out-perform other stock indices.

Full report
https://realmim.com/last-week-stocks-hold-gains-made-previous-week/

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

Market Review from Realm Investment Management – week ending 3rd February 2023

Stock-markets rallied mid-week after the US Fed lifted interest rates by 0.25% which suggested a slower pace of rate hikes was ahead. At the press conference following the announcement, Chairman Jerome Powell said there had been progress in the battle against inflation but noted that average hourly earnings gains were still “fairly elevated”.

Full report:
https://realmim.com/powell-says-progress-made-against-inflation-but-us-jobs-data-is-much-stronger-than-expected/

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

Last week’s US inflation number came in higher than expected and sparked a volatile reaction. The S&P 500 fell sharply and the dollar jumped along with the 10-year US Treasury yield. Optimism that price pressure was cooling was immediately put on hold. Headline inflation didn’t look too bad but that includes the price of oil which is falling fast. The Fed watches Core inflation (excludes oil) and that was up 0.6% over a month. U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note has continued higher this week hitting 3.6% earlier today (Tuesday) for the first time since 2011.

Full report

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

Market View from Realm Investment Management – week ending 2nd September 2022

Equity Markets were lower last week as investors assessed the implications of the previous week’s hawkish Jackson Hole address by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. US Treasury Yields moved higher with the 10Y Treasury yield rallying further from its August low, back towards its June high.

Full report:
https://realmim.com/further-russian-squeeze-on-europe/

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’